Forecast Horizon and Solar Variability Influences on the Performances of Multiscale Hybrid Forecast Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Multiscale Storm Identification and Forecast
We have recently developed a hierarchical K-Means clustering method for weather images. Using this technique, it is possible to identify storms at different scales. In this paper, we will describe an error-minimization technique to identify movement between successive frames of a sequence and show that we can use the K-Means clusters as the minimization kernel. Using this technique in combinati...
متن کاملSolar activity forecast with a dynamo model
Although systematic measurements of the Sun’s polar magnetic field exist only from mid-1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field at a sunspot minimum and the strength of the next cycle, although the strength of the cycle is not correlated well with the polar field produced at its end. ...
متن کاملComment on 'forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-horizon Bounds'
I enjoyed reading yet another paper by Patton and Timmermann (PT hereinafter) and feel that it has broken new ground in testing the rationality of a sequence of multi-horizon fixed target forecasts. Rationality tests are not new in the forecasting literature, but the idea of testing the monotonicity properties of second moment bounds across several horizons is novel and can suggest possible sou...
متن کاملForecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds
Forecast rationality under squared error loss implies various bounds on second moments of the data across forecast horizons. For example, the mean squared forecast error should be increasing in the horizon, and the mean squared forecast should be decreasing in the horizon. We propose rationality tests based on these restrictions, including new ones that can be conducted without data on the targ...
متن کاملBrent crude oil Price Forecast with Hybrid Model of Nonlinear Grey Model and Linear Arima Waste Correction
The characteristics of crude oil and the factors affecting the price of this energy carrier have caused its price forecast to always be considered by researchers, oil market activists, governments and policy makers. Since the price of crude oil is affected by many factors, therefore, continuous studies should be done in this way so that the estimates made over time, the results are more accurat...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Energies
سال: 2019
ISSN: 1996-1073
DOI: 10.3390/en12122264